The recently released HSE report on mesothelioma statistics for Great Britain 2024 presents an overview of the impact of mesothelioma, including recent mortality trends, demographic insights, and projections for future cases.

The statistics provided go up to and including 2022.  That year, there were 2,257 mesothelioma deaths, showing a slight decline from previous years. The report highlights that most deaths occur in men, primarily due to past occupational asbestos exposures. Female deaths, often resulting from indirect asbestos exposure, have remained steady.

The report indicates that the decline in male deaths is expected to continue throughout the 2020s, while female deaths are expected to remain at current levels for a few more years before gradually decreasing.

The report reminds the reader of the disease's long latency period, which typically takes at least 30 years from exposure to symptom manifestation. This extended latency means that mesothelioma deaths occurring today are largely the result of past exposures during the 1950s -1980s. 

Overall Scale of Disease Including Trends

Mesothelioma annual deaths remained stable at around 2,500 per year from 2012 to 2020. The report notes a slight decrease in the total number of deaths in 2021 and 2022, consistent with earlier projections that predicted a gradual decline in cases during the 2020s. Male deaths, historically higher due to asbestos exposure in male-dominated industries, have begun to decrease, whereas female deaths remain relatively stable.

This pattern reflects the earlier elimination of asbestos exposure in industries like shipbuilding, which primarily employed men. However, asbestos continued to be used in construction longer, affecting men and some women. The report also considers the variability in the figures for 2020 and 2021, which may have been influenced by the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on death registrations and certifications.

Mesothelioma Mortality by Age

The report provides an analysis of mesothelioma mortality by age, noting that over 70% of annual deaths occur in individuals aged over 75. This statistic aligns with the long latency period associated with asbestos exposure. Deaths among younger age groups (under 65) are decreasing, likely due to stricter asbestos regulations introduced from the 1970s.

Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit (IIDB) Cases

The report highlights that the number of new IIDB cases for mesothelioma has remained relatively high, with 1,755 cases in 2022, down from 1,920 in 2021. The majority of these cases continue to involve men for the reasons set out above.  The slight reduction in IIDB cases over the last two years could be attributed to the pandemic’s impact on assessments and death registrations.

Mortality by Region

The report indicates regional variations in mesothelioma mortality rates across Great Britain. Higher death rates (deaths per million) are observed in regions historically associated with heavy industries, such as shipbuilding and construction, where asbestos use was prevalent. The mortality rate in Wales is now similar to Scotland, with England showing slightly higher overall rates.

As an illustration of the long-term increase (until recently), in 1984 – 1986 there were mortality rates of 26.8 and 3.5 per million (male/ female).  In 2020 - 2022 this had reached 60.5 and 13.0 per million.

Mortality by Occupation

Mesothelioma deaths are heavily concentrated among certain occupations, particularly those associated with the construction and shipbuilding industries. The report notes that jobs such as carpenters, plumbers, electricians (construction industry), and metal plate workers (shipbuilding industry) have the highest mesothelioma mortality rates.

Women often have different patterns of exposure compared to men, giving different results. Unlike men, whose deaths are predominantly linked to direct occupational exposure in industry, many female mesothelioma cases do not stem from direct handling of asbestos. Instead, these cases are often attributed to secondary or environmental exposure, such as asbestos fibres present in older school buildings or homes, or from indirect contact, such as living with someone who worked with asbestos.

Interestingly, the report identifies certain professions with unexpectedly high mesothelioma mortality rates among women, including teachers and administrative workers. These findings suggest that asbestos exposure in non-industrial settings -like schools, offices, and hospitals - played a significant role.

Estimation of the Future Burden of Mesothelioma Deaths

The report suggests that the total number of mesothelioma deaths will gradually decline through the 2020s, particularly among men, whose numbers are expected to reduce sooner due to earlier asbestos exposure elimination in heavy industries. However, female mesothelioma deaths are expected to remain steady before declining later in the decade. This difference reflects the varied patterns of asbestos exposure between genders.

Longer-term projections are considered uncertain from this data, but it is considered likely to continue to fall beyond 2030 based on other evidence.  Although some exposure continued into the 1980s and 1990s, this was lower than in previous decades.

The full report can be found here.